Dynamics and Comovements of Regional Exports in Italy

1. Motivations The analysis of the factors determining different growth rates and convergence across geographical areas has been a major theme in recent years in the regional analysis of economic research. Generally, the debate has been focused on factual predictions, of different specification, of regional growth models, based on yearly data, using a cross-section approach and per capita output (regional GDP) (Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1992). However, the attention paid by economists to analysing growth and convergence across areas does not represent the only useful analysis that may be worth pursuing on the dynamic properties of different areas. National and aggregated economic analysis does not contribute to shaping comovements in different regions and interest in local dynamics can be motivated in several ways. It is well-known that permanent change in output and employment results from unexpected shocks to the economy, and that any economic change over time can be a result of the trend-cycle and seasonal components, neither of which may be assumed as being constant. Moreover, local or regional shocks can have redistribution consequences and, as a result, regional reallocations may lead to aggregate fluctuations. We can imagine that while regional economic series may share a common driving factor, the timing of the response to shocks to the factor may differ across areas for the reasons alluded to above. The study of local dynamics would, therefore, be a more useful and significant approach to undertake, if there is a strong belief that different geographic areas respond unevenly to economic shocks. This paper fits into the framework of literature on the quantification of regional development in Italy and is addressed at a stylised analysis of the recent dynamics of regional exports in Italy, which, as is well-known, represent a generally important component in the definition of the regional product (GDP).Its main aim is to identify the not unimportant aspects of local growth processes which have influenced, at times in a decisive though differentiated way, the development of Italian regions in recent decades. The research carried out, which considers six macro-areas at the level of territorial disaggregation, has been restricted by the limited availability of the quarterly time series of exports for the years subsequent to 1984. It has involved an analysis of the characteristics inherent in the dynamics of each area with reference to both long run and short run dynamics, as well as investigating leading and lagging comovements across export …